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I know what it should be Labour officials should be scurrying around telling anyone who will listen that “It’s not our manor we’re just going to put our feet up and watch the fun” while their activists fan out into the constituency whispering: “Have you seen that Lib Dem candidate Good family man never tops 30mph But that Tory Maria Hutchings She eats babies”Ed Miliband wants want David Cameron doesn’t want Which in this case is a Lib Dem hold If the Tories snatch the seat the political narrative shifts A Government winning – not holding but winning – a by-election midterm Unprecedented Gay marriage Zero impact The Ukip surge Nothing more than a Nigel Farage drinking gameBut if he loses Gay marriage backlash Euro-speech damp squib renewed round of leadership speculationTo me it’s a no-brainer But this being Ed Miliband’s Labour party it’s a huge brainer Or a hundred-brainer WhateverLast night Labour selected John O’Farrell as its candidate That’s John O’Farrell best-selling author and rib-tickling regular on Have I Got News For You OK it’s not as if David Beckham suddenly announced “Sorry Victoria I love Paris But I can’t stand by and watch the stigmatisation of the proletarian underclass any more I’m off to Eastleigh” But John O’Farrell is still – in relative terms – a high-profile candidateAnd so this morning expectations of Labour’s performance are gradually starting to get ratcheted up On Twitter Labour activists have a spring in their step Trips are being planned Diaries cleared Eastleigh is turning into the Left’s new At least for part of the Left This morning I spoke to someone in the shadow cabinet “What’s the Eastleigh strategy” I asked “We haven’t got one yet” they replied “Have you been asked to go up there” “No” “Any call for staffers” “No” “So why did we just select John O’Farrell” “No idea”Ed Miliband had two choices One was to go hell for leather throw in the kitchen sink and make a real play to drive up the Labour vote with an outside chance of perhaps even pushing the Lib Dems back into third The other as I said was to take a rain check and hope David Cameron falls flat on his face Instead Labour’s leader has done neither Or rather he’s done both He’s gone halfway up the M3 for leather and thrown in the washing-up bowlThe problem Miliband has is that he’s got himself caught on the horns of a home-made dilemma Specifically he’s fallen victim to three bad strategic decisionsThe first was banging on about One Nation And so it’s provedIt’s now been four months since he made his audacious bid to cast himself as the new Benjamin Disraeli And it’s failed One Nation is rapidly securing the same currency as the Big Society Which is noneHe hasn’t even begun to flesh out what One Nation actually means No one not even his own shadow cabinet has a clue what it’s supposed to mean And now in Eastleigh if Labour doesn’t get a spectacular result it’s going to be shown to be equally meaningless in electoral termsThe second problem is that while Ed Miliband talks about a One Nation strategy he isn’t actually implementing one Since he was elected Miliband has been pursuing a good old-fashioned core vote strategy Partly that’s because it allows him to follow the path of least resistance internally and party because it allows to capture the low-hanging political fruit offered by the Iraq War refuseniks and Lib Dem refugees But that means he hasn’t even begun to scratch the surface of the Tory vote Which in a seat like Eastleigh means the only way to maximise the Labour vote is to drive down the Lib Dem vote and open the door for David CameronThe third issue is that the choice of John Farrell shows once again that Labour’s selection procedures remain a joke Last month we had – for the umpteenth time – a statement from Ed Miliband on how Labour was seeking to diversify its candidate selection procedures Labour needed more working-class candidates More candidates from the military More candidates with a business background More women More black and ethnic minority candidatesSo who do they chose for their first high-profile by-election of the year The ex-miner dotcom executive and Helmand veteran John O’FarrellO’Farrell is no Johnny-come-lately to the Labour party and will no doubt make a great candidate and in the future a great MP But if Ed Miliband really was serious about his commitment to diversity then this was the perfect opportunity to show itThings may still work out for Labour in Eastleigh The Lib Dems remain favourites to retain the seat The “bloke-off-the-telly” factor may drive up the Labour vote The members of the shadow cabinet may still get their callBut one thing's for certain If the result does somehow go Ed Miliband's way it will be the product of luck not judgment Edited for by Jennifer O'Mahony A takeover would also eliminate a competitive threat and keep the startup out of the hands of another company. 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| + | == Last weekbr this == | ||
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