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<div class="article_body entry-content">, March 28, 2013</strong></p><p><em>“FACT: Nearly 40% of all gun sales don't require a background check under current law. #DemandAction”</em></p><p><strong>— tweet from @BarackObama, March 28</strong></p><p>We were away last week and have been catching up on the recent rhetoric. A number of readers asked us about this comment last week by President Obama, and his Twitter account ( by his campaign spin-off Organizing for Action), given that we had looked closely at this statistic back in January, in , and found it wanting. It ultimately earned a rating of Two Pinocchios. PolitiFact in January also there were serious problems with this particular statistic, giving it a rating of “half true.” And the Associated Press, , labeled this factoid “old and surely very tired.&rdquo,karen millen sale;</p><p>Normally we would expect some adjustment of the language in response to a fact-checker consensus. Alas, it appears to be time for a refresher course — and a new rating,lululemon outlet canada. </p><p></p><p><p class="h4">The Facts</p></p><p>There are two key problems with the president’s use of this statistic: The numbers are about two decades old, yet he acts as if they are fresh, and he refers to “purchases” or “sales&rdquo,lululemon outlet canada; when in fact the original report concerned “gun acquisitions” and “transactions,lululemon canada.” Those are much broader categories of data.</p><p>As we noted before, the White House said the figure comes from a , written by of Duke University and of the University of Chicago.</p><p>This study was based on , the same year that the BradyAct requirements for background checks came into effect. In fact, the questions concerned purchases dating as far back as 1991, and theBradyAct went into effect in early 1994 — meaning that some, if not many, of the guns were bought in a pre-Bradyenvironment.</p><p>Digging deeper, we found that the survey sample was just 251 people. (The survey was done by telephone, using a random-digit-dial method, with a response rate of 50 percent.) With this sample size, the 95 percent confidence interval will be plus or minus six percentage points.</p><p>Moreover,lululemon canada, when asked whether the respondent bought from a licensed firearms dealer, the possible answers included &ldquo,lululemon canada;probably was/think so” and “probably not,” leaving open the possibility the purchaser was mistaken. (The “probably not” answers were counted as &ldquo,Below The Beltway A Humor Column by Gene Weingarte;no.”)</p><p>When all of the “yes” and “probably was” answers were added together, that left 35.7 percent of respondents indicating they did not receive the gun from a licensed firearms dealer. Rounding up gets you to 40 percent, although as we noted before, the survey sample is so small it could also be rounded down to 30 percent,Eugene Robinson - Eugene Robinson Archive.</p><p>Moreover, when gifts, inheritances and prizes are added in, then the number shrinks to 26.4 percent. (The survey showed that nearly 23.8 percent of the people surveyed obtained their gun either as a gift or inherited it, and about half of them believed a licensed firearms dealer was the source.)</p><p>Cook and Ludwig, in of the data for the Police Foundation, acknowledged the ambiguity in the answers but gave their best estimate as a range of 30 to 40 percent for transactions in the “off-the-books” secondary market. (The shorter 1997 study cited by the White House does not give a range but instead says “approximately 60 percent of gun acquisitions” involved a licensed dealer.)</p><p>Meanwhile, note the phrasing in the original report — “acquisitions” and “transactions,” which included trades, gifts and the like. But Obama spoke of “gun purchases,” and his tweet referred to “gun sales.”</p><p>Why is it important to make a distinction between purchases and transactions? For one thing, — supported by the White House — specifically makes an exception for “a bona fide gift between immediate family members, including spouses, parents, children, siblings&rdquo,lululemon outlet; as well as “the death of another person for whom the unlicensed transferor is an executor or administrator of an estate or a trustee of a trust created in a will.” As noted above, such transactions can change the results. </p><p>The Police Foundation report did not break out gun purchases, so in January we asked Ludwig to rerun the data,lululemon outlet canada, just looking at guns purchased in the secondary market. The result, depending on the definition,lululemon canada, was 14 percent to 22 percent. That's at least half the percentage repeatedly cited by Obama. (In a for National Review, Cook and Ludwig wrote “we don’t know the current percentage — nor does anyone else.” But they say if the percentage is lower it actually strengthens the case for expanding background checks because it would be less expensive to implement,lululemon outlet online.) </p><p>Since our initial report on this statistic appeared, The Washington Post in February on a survey of Maryland residents, asking whether they went through a background check during a gun purchase in the past 10 years. The result? Twenty-one percent say they did not. </p><p>Coincidentally or not, 21 percent falls within the 14-to-22 percent range for gun <em>purchases</em> without background checks in the 1994 survey. (Note: Because so few Marylanders buy guns, there is a large potential margin of error with this result.)</p><p>A White House spokesman declined to comment on why the president keeps using the “up to 40 percent” statistic. </p><p></p><p><p class="h4">The Pinocchio Test</p></p><p>When we first looked at this issue, we noted that congressional foes of gun control had made it difficult for the federal government to conduct research on guns. But, as shown by the Washington Post survey of Maryland gun buyers, there is nothing stopping private pollsters from producing a more up-to-date survey.</p><p>In the meantime, we have documented that (a) the survey numbers are about two decades old, so they include purchases that predate any background checks; (b) the survey sample is rather small,Marco Rubio sits on the immigration fence - The Wa; and (c) the results are significantly different when adjusted for “purchases” or “sales” — the phrasing used by the president.</p><p>Two months ago, we were willing to cut the White House some slack, given the paucity of recent data. But the president’s failure to acknowledge the significant questions about these old data, or his slippery phrasing, leaves us little choice but to downgrade this claim to Three Pinocchios. </p><p><p class="h4">Three Pinocchios</p><span class="imgleft"><img border="0" align="bottom" src="/rw/WashingtonPost/Content/Blogs/fact-checker/StandingArt/pinocchio_3.jpg?uuid=uLasnkniEeCn1tWe_T6KGA"></span><br><br><br><br></p><p>()</p><p><strong>Check out our candidate </strong></p><p><strong>Follow The Fact Checker on and friend us on </strong></p><p></p><p></p></article></div> | <div class="article_body entry-content">, March 28, 2013</strong></p><p><em>“FACT: Nearly 40% of all gun sales don't require a background check under current law. #DemandAction”</em></p><p><strong>— tweet from @BarackObama, March 28</strong></p><p>We were away last week and have been catching up on the recent rhetoric. A number of readers asked us about this comment last week by President Obama, and his Twitter account ( by his campaign spin-off Organizing for Action), given that we had looked closely at this statistic back in January, in , and found it wanting. It ultimately earned a rating of Two Pinocchios. PolitiFact in January also there were serious problems with this particular statistic, giving it a rating of “half true.” And the Associated Press, , labeled this factoid “old and surely very tired.&rdquo,karen millen sale;</p><p>Normally we would expect some adjustment of the language in response to a fact-checker consensus. Alas, it appears to be time for a refresher course — and a new rating,lululemon outlet canada. </p><p></p><p><p class="h4">The Facts</p></p><p>There are two key problems with the president’s use of this statistic: The numbers are about two decades old, yet he acts as if they are fresh, and he refers to “purchases” or “sales&rdquo,lululemon outlet canada; when in fact the original report concerned “gun acquisitions” and “transactions,lululemon canada.” Those are much broader categories of data.</p><p>As we noted before, the White House said the figure comes from a , written by of Duke University and of the University of Chicago.</p><p>This study was based on , the same year that the BradyAct requirements for background checks came into effect. In fact, the questions concerned purchases dating as far back as 1991, and theBradyAct went into effect in early 1994 — meaning that some, if not many, of the guns were bought in a pre-Bradyenvironment.</p><p>Digging deeper, we found that the survey sample was just 251 people. (The survey was done by telephone, using a random-digit-dial method, with a response rate of 50 percent.) With this sample size, the 95 percent confidence interval will be plus or minus six percentage points.</p><p>Moreover,lululemon canada, when asked whether the respondent bought from a licensed firearms dealer, the possible answers included &ldquo,lululemon canada;probably was/think so” and “probably not,” leaving open the possibility the purchaser was mistaken. (The “probably not” answers were counted as &ldquo,Below The Beltway A Humor Column by Gene Weingarte;no.”)</p><p>When all of the “yes” and “probably was” answers were added together, that left 35.7 percent of respondents indicating they did not receive the gun from a licensed firearms dealer. Rounding up gets you to 40 percent, although as we noted before, the survey sample is so small it could also be rounded down to 30 percent,Eugene Robinson - Eugene Robinson Archive.</p><p>Moreover, when gifts, inheritances and prizes are added in, then the number shrinks to 26.4 percent. (The survey showed that nearly 23.8 percent of the people surveyed obtained their gun either as a gift or inherited it, and about half of them believed a licensed firearms dealer was the source.)</p><p>Cook and Ludwig, in of the data for the Police Foundation, acknowledged the ambiguity in the answers but gave their best estimate as a range of 30 to 40 percent for transactions in the “off-the-books” secondary market. (The shorter 1997 study cited by the White House does not give a range but instead says “approximately 60 percent of gun acquisitions” involved a licensed dealer.)</p><p>Meanwhile, note the phrasing in the original report — “acquisitions” and “transactions,” which included trades, gifts and the like. But Obama spoke of “gun purchases,” and his tweet referred to “gun sales.”</p><p>Why is it important to make a distinction between purchases and transactions? For one thing, — supported by the White House — specifically makes an exception for “a bona fide gift between immediate family members, including spouses, parents, children, siblings&rdquo,lululemon outlet; as well as “the death of another person for whom the unlicensed transferor is an executor or administrator of an estate or a trustee of a trust created in a will.” As noted above, such transactions can change the results. </p><p>The Police Foundation report did not break out gun purchases, so in January we asked Ludwig to rerun the data,lululemon outlet canada, just looking at guns purchased in the secondary market. The result, depending on the definition,lululemon canada, was 14 percent to 22 percent. That's at least half the percentage repeatedly cited by Obama. (In a for National Review, Cook and Ludwig wrote “we don’t know the current percentage — nor does anyone else.” But they say if the percentage is lower it actually strengthens the case for expanding background checks because it would be less expensive to implement,lululemon outlet online.) </p><p>Since our initial report on this statistic appeared, The Washington Post in February on a survey of Maryland residents, asking whether they went through a background check during a gun purchase in the past 10 years. The result? Twenty-one percent say they did not. </p><p>Coincidentally or not, 21 percent falls within the 14-to-22 percent range for gun <em>purchases</em> without background checks in the 1994 survey. (Note: Because so few Marylanders buy guns, there is a large potential margin of error with this result.)</p><p>A White House spokesman declined to comment on why the president keeps using the “up to 40 percent” statistic. </p><p></p><p><p class="h4">The Pinocchio Test</p></p><p>When we first looked at this issue, we noted that congressional foes of gun control had made it difficult for the federal government to conduct research on guns. But, as shown by the Washington Post survey of Maryland gun buyers, there is nothing stopping private pollsters from producing a more up-to-date survey.</p><p>In the meantime, we have documented that (a) the survey numbers are about two decades old, so they include purchases that predate any background checks; (b) the survey sample is rather small,Marco Rubio sits on the immigration fence - The Wa; and (c) the results are significantly different when adjusted for “purchases” or “sales” — the phrasing used by the president.</p><p>Two months ago, we were willing to cut the White House some slack, given the paucity of recent data. But the president’s failure to acknowledge the significant questions about these old data, or his slippery phrasing, leaves us little choice but to downgrade this claim to Three Pinocchios. </p><p><p class="h4">Three Pinocchios</p><span class="imgleft"><img border="0" align="bottom" src="/rw/WashingtonPost/Content/Blogs/fact-checker/StandingArt/pinocchio_3.jpg?uuid=uLasnkniEeCn1tWe_T6KGA"></span><br><br><br><br></p><p>()</p><p><strong>Check out our candidate </strong></p><p><strong>Follow The Fact Checker on and friend us on </strong></p><p></p><p></p></article></div> | ||
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